Our Roadmap to the Better Way
TTHW is all about presenting a positive
Vision of High Wycombe's future. In this section we build that
roadmap year by year and put it in the context of potential
world events. You can contribute to this section by dropping us
a line about what you think will happen in the future of your
Town:
Commentary: Some people
are surprised at the ideas presented here as if they
represent the campaign promises of a 'radical' group. This
is to totally misunderstand this Vision. The Transition Movement
is not a political organisation and this is not a 'manifesto'.
These are not promises. We have no power to make these things
happen nor could we stop them from happening.
Where we indicate
names, places and dates these are for 'dramatic effect' only to
illustrate the type of events that could unfold. What happens
could be quite horrific (even unbelievable) as we are already
locked into some unstoppable change. This should
feed your imagination so that, you too, can see a different
future. Facing up to what the future could bring realistically
is what Shaun Chamberlin (author of "The Transition Timeline")
calls "dark optimism" - the ability to face up to a pessimistic
future but respond with optimism and positive action. Activists
are not 'miserable' - they are actually the happiest people you
could ever meet. They know their demons and have faced up to
them. They are working for that brighter future, not through
naivety, but through grim fore-knowing. It is a future where
this town can be resilient
to change. A better future. A Better Way....
Note that the climate
change scenario represented here suggests a 3oC rise
in global temperature by 2100. Most of this rise is inevitable
based upon historical greehouse gas emissions. We might be able
to stop it going further. This scenario also has no dramatic
tipping point. This is an exercise to demonstrate our
vulnerability to climate change - be it global warming, global
cooling, man-made or natural. No climate change is as benign as
it may have been 200 years ago due our global human population
consuming more than can be sustained. 200 years of cheap fossil
fuels has built a human eco-system totally reliant upon a stable
and consistent climatic conditions. Only relocalised and
resilient communities will withstand this test. We assume here
than international efforts to reduce carbon emissions remain
largely futile and that simple scarcity & high price will force
decarbonisation upon the economy of High Wycombe.
High Wycombe 2010
As people learn to live with the collapse of
global Financial Institutions High Wycombe TTHW sets up the
Town's first Credit Union. A Community Orchard and Allotment
open on a site near the Rye. Planning restrictions on Renewable
Energy schemes in Conservation areas are lifted. The Council
approve a list of over 50 makes and models of biomass boiler for
use in Wycombe's Smoke Control Zone. Transition Town High
Wycombe launches the Town's first "Local Food Guide"
to great acclaim. (It is published to this day and is now in its
50th edition.) A system
of Master Gardeners is established so that older gardeners can
pass on their knowledge to young people in trade for the extra
food that is grown. Regular classes in organic and "no-dig"
gardening are held at the Transition Allotment. The first "Green Fair" is held on the Rye.
The "Solar500" club is launched giving all residents up to a 20%
discount off Solar Panels. The library starts lending energy
monitors to the public so that they can measure and reduce their
home energy usage.
Wycombe District Council performs first
detailed energy audit for all its activities and buildings.
Rigorous energy efficiency and conservation programme
introduced. Public awareness campaign started with the
appointment of voluntary local energy wardens for every street
and neighbourhood. Teams of volunteers wander the streets in
Winter with Thermal Imaging cameras finding out who needs more
insulation. The volunteers then work with the householders to
improve their homes. The area holds its first "Future Buildings
Weekend" where the public got to see inside local homes fitted
with the best practice insulation and micro-generation
equipment. The event was popular and became an annual event
running through until 2030 by which time everyone was living in
such homes and it lost relevance. Work starts on local biogas-powered tram
lines with extension to Maidenhead. Road building and repairs
stop. Recycling lorries undergo conversion to dual fuel with the
intention of using bio-methane. Council attempts first
demand-simulation scheme by investing its purchasing power in
local biofuel and renewable energy initiatives. Investors flock
to the area seeing as the new Renewables Corridor outside of
London. Leaflets covering the citizen's responsibilities in the
face of Climate Change and Peak Oil drop through all letter
boxes.
The World 2010
The price of Carbon reaches $100 per tonne.
Oil prices spike again to $140 per barrel and never look back. All Airport expansion
plans finally scrapped when the Government changes. Sixteen Airlines collapse. Peak Oil
enters the Curriculum for all Schoolchildren under the age of 14
in Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Comment: International
Energy Agency reported this on August 3rd 2009: "There is now
a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when
demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new
supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing
fields." The IEA estimates that the decline in oil
production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a
year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in
2007....
High Wycombe 2015
UK Government Carbon Budgets start to take effect. Fuel prices take off.
All Council and Emergency vehicles converted to use biodiesel
from recycled vegetable oils manufactured by the local biofuel
refinery. Part of the Rye is converted to a Carp Farm.
Construction of the Town's largest Wind Farm starts near the
Abbey Barn Lane. The new Anaerobic Digestion plant opens in the
town converting sewage wastes in to biomethane which is then
injected into the town's Gas Mains. The mainline railway line
through town is electrified. Programmes to
expand cycle path network adopted. Town Centre Congestion Charge
introduced. First Biogas Digester project opened to feed the new
Biogas buses & trams. Council introduces first local and organic
food targets. The annual Motor Show on the Rye is scrapped. The
Green Fair takes its place. The rooftops of the town start to
glisten with five-hundred new Solar Thermal & photovoltaic Panels. There is
steady demand for Photovoltaics encouraged by the bulk-buying
scheme and the Credit Union. Information about renewable energy and
Transition is available from mobile exhibitions run by
volunteers. These exhibitions spring up in Churches, Community
Halls, Schools, street corners, The Eden Centre and at outdoor
fairs. Bucks "New" University expands into courses for
sustainable building, food production, local economics and
renewable energy. New plans for local democracy drawn up to an
initially lukewarm reception. Town suffers its first flash
flood. After three days of heavy rain one warm November torrents
of water washed away gardens, homes and people. The A40 get shut
for three days in order for the debris of people's lives to be removed. Town grinds to a halt. No
buses, no cars. Shops run short of food. The first economic
effect of Climate Change are realised. It was a warning for all
of us. More people got the message.
The World 2015
The UK Government (in cooperation with
several other EU States) introduce the first personal Carbon
Caps. Each citizen is granted a quota or 'carbon allowance'. The
allowance can be bought and sold. As the price of Carbon shoots
up cash floods into the hands of the poor with low-carbon lives.
This and the warmer winters offset fuel poverty. Suddenly flying
becomes very expensive. Flash floods sweep Europe for three years in
a row. Crop failures become a fact of life. Several countries
fail to turn up at the Olympic Games in London due to spiralling
costs of Air Travel and local food supply problems. "People have
other priorities" says the head of the Olympic Committee.
Official Date of Peak Oil recognised as 2012. Colin Campbell
says it's "now just water under the bridge". Carbon Price tops
$150 per tonne with Oil now at $200 per barrel. Global agreement
is reached on a new form of GDP Measurement that includes an
environmental scorecard for sustainable development. For the
first time human well-being is measured as a sign of economic
progress. Fuel Rationing
starts across the UK. Water Rationing starts in the US and
China. Several Coal-fired Power Stations are completed with
pioneering Carbon Capture and Sequestration ("CCS")
technologies.
Commentary: Some people
think that we want a Wind Farm on Abbey Barn Lane. A strange
thing to think! We do not know if this site is suitable. It is
beyond our power to make this happen nor may it even be
desirable. All we know is that the future energy sources for the
town will move a lot closer to home and become renewable. The
days of outsourcing your electricity needs to some dirty
coal-fired power station hundreds of miles away will be
consigned to history. If not a Wind Farm then what? If not the
Abbey Barn area then where? You chose.
High Wycombe 2020
The Council finally come around to the idea
of Transition after sudden spike in food prices. An appreciation that the Town is overly
vulnerable to world events slowly sinks in. The letters page of
the local newspaper bristles with the letters from angry local
people demanding action - mostly the same people who a few years
before demanded that nothing ever change. The first Transition
Mayor is voted in. WDC formally adopts the TTHW's Energy Descent
Plan but starts crash programme to switch over to using CHP
(Combined Heat Power) in all its buildings against the advice of
the plan. Part of the Rye is ploughed up for a Community Supported
Agriculture scheme to the howls of anguish of local
environmentalists and community groups. The Transition Team were
over-joyed. Twenty Anaerobic Digesters are commissioned through
the Wycombe District. Some are now solely supplying the
transport sector. All Buses have, by now,
switched to locally-produced biofuels or biogas. CSA Farmers Markets start to be established at
new local hubs within the Town rather than just the Town Centre.
Oil Depletion Protocol Adopted by the Town. 60% of the Town's
Food Supplies are now sourced from within 20 miles. Council now
committed to get people out of their cars "at all costs". Local
Currency introduced by the Town's Community Bank. More and more
Wind Farms come on tap around the area and Totteridge becomes
the first pioneer of an entirely local electricity distribution
network. The Council starts experiments in
community democracy. Record drought hits town destroying crops
and garden produce. First Climate Change refugees trickle into
town.
The World 2020
 Food
riot in London's Trafalgar Square. Britain's new Green
Government leaves the WTO. Global Meat Consumption drops
dramatically as scarcity forces prices up several thousand
percent. Most of us only ever enjoy a meat dish on special
occasions. Carbon Price tops $300 per tonne with Oil at $1000
per barrel.
Fuel rationing becomes joined by food
rationing.
Commentary: This section
is designed to show how Transition is at odds with traditional
'environmentalism'. Do not confuse the two. The plan to
turn the Rye into a Farm has aroused interest - but here again
people have interpreted this as being "too radical". We can only
remind everyone that these are not campaign promises for the
Transition Movement! The need to turn public parks into
vegetable patches has already occurred during the "Dig for
Victory" campaigns of the Second World War. It was a response to
genuine food supply problems. Until 1927 The Rye was used by
herds of dairy cows who used to make their own way up Easton
Street and the High Street to local dairies for milking. When the Supermarket shelves are
groaning under the weight of food it is easy to believe that
the Rye is simply a place to walk the dog or feed the Swans. It
will be so much more. Those who ignore history are doomed to
repeat it.
High Wycombe 2025
WDC launches local "Dig for Victory" campaign
as the money for its CHP program dries up. The Wye dries up for two years. Local food
production switches to allotments and private gardens. Roadside
verges come alive with cabbages. The local
Water Utility Companies start shipping thousands of rainwater
barrels to local people in desperate bid to stem demand upon
drinking water. New Planning Regulations halt all Urban
'sprawl'. Future Housing is along the 'walking community' model
only. Up to 20% of the townfolk are now involved in growing food
(up from less than 1% in 2010). Most summers are now long, hot and dry - it's a long
growing season but those without water struggle to grow
anything. To make it worse, flash flooding now happens every
Autumn washing away soil. The solution - more tree planting -
everywhere, anywhere. Open
areas start to be dominated by the local tree planting scheme.
Many of the trees bear fruit and the town starts to become known
as the 'apple town' amongst the locals. A somewhat illicit trade
in Cider starts. Despite some hardship the measures are
universally popular. The proportion of physically active adults
more than doubled and obesity halved. Deaths due to diabetes
fall by half, coronary heart disease falls by 35%, death by
strokes and similar causes falls by a fifth. Local democracy gets a new lease of life
with local communities becoming directly empowered to run their
areas as they see fit. The Council admit they no longer have the
resources and welcome the ability to delegate to the community.
All Council wages now paid in the local Currency to the great
dissatisfaction of employees. Climate Change refugees continue
to enter the town from North Africa leading to unrest. Letters
from far-right Nationalists start to appear in the local paper
and their Britain-first views gain support to the horror of
many.
The World 2025
 USA: 2
million mid-western environmental refugees flood into
California. President Bobby Kennedy Jnr proclaims that "America
has awoken from its dream". Marshal Law comes into effect in
fifteen States. Flying for many now becomes a distant memory as
the last domestic carrier folds. RAF abandons all training
flights and warns of national security implications due to its
inability to fight. The last remaining Coal-fired Power Station
with CCS is closed due to their prohibitively high cost in
comparison to renewables. General Motors fails - nobody is
buying its electric SUVs. Civil
disturbances cause by food shortages continue into their 20th
year. In the US Ethanol distilleries are broken up by crowds
desperate for grain to be returned to the flour mills. Large
numbers of junk food outlets collapse. Doctors in many northern
Nations see the obesity epidemic halted and reversed.
However,
for many in the majority south there is only starvation.
Sub-Saharan Africa is hardest hit. European Union agrees to a
monetary reform experiment whereby Government Borrowing's are
converted into Government Credit. Banking sector scaled back
severely after years of excess. Taxes on currency trading
introduced. Government Credit spent into the economy as Public
Credits. Many Banking chains are nationalised and become part of
the Post Office. Local currencies become officially recognised.
The Transition currency is born. Global Trade moves to a system
of carbon-currency trading. The City of London sheds 80% of all
staff as trading floors fall silent forever. Rural areas are
awash with "City Refugees" looking to invest their money in
small farms. Slowly agriculture becomes the dominant industry.
Making money from money passes into history. You either make
money from food or energy these days. Steady-state economics
become the new buzz-phrase in Whitehall. Economics schools churn
out graduates who understand the concept of natural limits.
Commentary: Isn't it strange that the thought
of millions starving in Africa doesn't even warrant a comment
from our sceptics. To drive this moral point home just page down
a bit until the events of 2055 thru 2060. Note that the figures
for the rising health benefits from the new local economy are
actually REAL. They come from Cuba between 1997 and 2002. We do
not make this stuff up.
High Wycombe 2030
The Town achieves 80% self sufficiency in
basic food stuffs. Most of this is home-grown. We have adapted
to grow different kinds of crops around the unpredictable and
ever-changing growing seasons. Occasional violent weather
destroys crops. After one period of clement weather a bumper
crop is realised. The A40 through Town is shut for a street
party to celebrate a harvest festival. The closure is so
successful it gets extended to a week. How different things are
from fifteen years ago when flash-floods shut the town down and
threatened the viability of the area. Now the town is becoming
more resilient and self-sufficient. Local currency now 70% of
all money in circulation. Local economic contraction slows and
deflation stops. Home repossessions stop as the Community Bank
moves home-owners over to local currency mortgages. Local car
pooling and simple on-demand taxi systems see limited success.
However cycling and walking start to become very popular with
most communities now enjoying Clubs for people who want to
practice these new hobbies. Every home in the town is now
insulated to standards exceeding minimum Building Regulations. A
small cottage industry manufacturing Energy Saving Light Bulbs
starts in Amersham. Neighbourhood Committees over-see the
meeting of energy and food targets. People start to see the
community in a new light. There is renewed interest in local
forms of entertainment, care for the young and social clubs. The
continued trickle of Climate Change refugees, many Australian &
American, continues. Political arguments about their welfare
continue.
The World 2030
 Artic
Ice Cap disappears in the Summer. Polar Bears live on though -
they are resilient.
Global food production slumps as agrochemical prices to soar.
Global economy adjusts to sustainable organic farming methods.
Large parts of Bangladesh now under water most of the year
round. The flow of boat people is reversed as Australians,
desperate to abandon their parched homeland, set off in small
boats hoping for a new life in south east Asia. Most are held in
camps for years awaiting their fate.
High Wycombe 2035
First hydrogen station opens in the town.
Essential workers switch to Plug-in Electric Hybrids for travel
to rural areas. These are the only cars on the roads. Bus and
Tram services are a roaring success with most drivers abandoning
their cars for lack of affordable fuel. The local economy holds
steady after 15 years of contraction. Local jobs are being
created by the Town's ever-expanding community and cooperative
Wind Farms. The area's 20th Community Supported Agriculture Farm
opens. Most are run by Climate Change refugees from Africa and
Australia. Adaptation to the appalling weather continues. Flash
floods continue but the inventive use of swales and tree
planting keep most of the valuable growing spaces intact. Studies show that the rate of Asthma and Diabetes in the
young has fallen to pre-World War 2 levels. Local Health
Services move resources away from these diseases in response.
Demands on care for the elderly remain static as many senior
citizens enjoy a second lease of life as their skills are so
much in demand. 50% of all the Town's domestic Heating
requirements are now met through various forms of Solar or
Biomass (largely wood pellets or wood chip). The remainder comes
from Gas but supplies remain insecure. TV watching rates slump
as people find themselves too busy digging the garden.
The World 2035
 Oil
piracy breaks out on the high seas with many of the tanker ships
being sold to the highest bidder. Oil trade collapses as most
producing nations withhold stock from markets in fear that they
won't get paid. Renewable Energy Plants now easily cheaper
than any alternative by a factor of two without subsidy. The
last Nuclear Power Stations start to be decommissioned. They
became so expensive to build that no new ones were built after
2010. Their enormous Government subsidies simply ran out as tax
revenues collapse.
Renewables dominate World Energy supplies supplying over half of
all requirements.
High Wycombe 2040
Closure of the Town's last Petrol pump. Only
three filling stations remain open - one selling LPG one selling
biodiesel & the final one - hydrogen. The Town wins its first "Britain in Bloom"
competition and is voted Britain's favourite place. There was
not a lot of competition (maybe Totnes & Lewes). It is the
only place in the country where property prices have started to
rise. Energy demand actually shows a small increase across the
town relieving fears of a wind energy glut. However the price of
renewable energy supplies continues to remain static. Some 25
new renewable energy enterprises open across the town. 20% of
homes switch from Gas Heating to Electric to make use of the
excess in renewable energy supplies. The Town has become rugged
and resilient but has yet to face any major shocks - just the
year-on-year decline in fossil fuels and reductions of cheap
imported food. Still most technology is made over-seas with many
items coming from the USA or China.
The World 2040
The success of Transition initiatives around
the world serve as a beacon of hope for communities everywhere.
However it is too late for many in the majority world, Australia
and the mid-west of North America. Tree planting finally
outstrips the rate of deforestation. CO2 emissions drop to
sustainable levels. Renewable Energy systems now dominate the
market with 70% penetration. Fossil Fuel, as an energy system,
is now effectively obsolete. It was simply priced out of the
market. It's use is now largely restricted to military
transport.
High Wycombe 2045
Some Fossil Fuel imports are resurrected but
flat demand restricts the price. Most of the Town is now getting
by on a mixture of biomass, biofuels, biogas, hydrogen and LPG.
Renewable energy now accounts for 80% of all domestic heating. A
small number of cars are still run by collectors under special
license only. Small children see them operate at special "Fossil
Fuel Rallies" that come to town during holidays. Most agree they
are horrible smelly things. The schools teach about how
dangerous they were and about how many children suffered from
respiratory diseases. Children regard the car as some Dickensian
nightmare. Refugees from North America continue to arrive.
Anti-American sentiment is spread by some extremists but the
town remains resilient. The views of right-wingers remain those
of a minority as the majority do not feel threatened by the
influx of new neighbours, most of whome bring useful skills.
The World 2045
The last foreign troops are abandoned in the
Middle East. It is too expensive to get them home. They walk or
stay. All the planet's oil reserves are now in the hands of the
Countries in which they lay. Restrictions on military activity
discourage further hostilities and oil shipments start again.
Exxon and Shell merge only to go bust. BP diversifies completely
out of Oil but remains in the Middle East with their
advanced solar energy technologies. Islamic Terrorism becomes a
thing of the past as new opportunities open up in the local
economies of the Middle East. Since most of the foreign troops
have left the future is secured. The populations feel less
threatened by the West.
High Wycombe 2050
Town declares itself 'post-carbon'. It is in
the first 100 hundred communities in Britain to formally declare
itself so. Things seem to be going well.
The World 2050
We enter the age of electricity as "Fifty Years of Oil Wars" passes into
history. Commentators are already declaring it the biggest waste
of energy the World has ever seen. Some call it the "Age of
Stupid". The Carbon Wars may be over but the era of Climate
Change wars was about to begin...
High Wycombe 2055
It seems as if things are looking up... The Town enjoys its 45th, and last, Green
Fair. Locals now just call it the "Town Fair" as the word
"green" has lost all its original meaning. However,
just as it looks as if the Transition was complete, were are
reminded of WHY it was necessary. The long shadow of events
further afield still struck us deeply. We watch aghast at events
in America & China. Economies teeter and collapse as they come
to the end of their unnatural growth cycle. They simply hit
natural limits beyond which growth was not possible. With these
collapses the availability of cheap foreign technology suffers.
This hits plans to install 20 'dynamic capacitors' in High
Wycombe designed to smooth-out variable renewable energy flows.
We learn to get by without them. Many technologies, such as
mobile phones, become unavailable for a period of around ten
years before local alternatives become available - even then
they are very expensive. More refugees arrive from North
America.
However, far worse was to come. Many with family in India or
Pakistan are left in grieving after events there spin rapidly
out of control one spring afternoon in 2057. The Town rallies
round to help those effected. Since the High Wycombe had started
early to restructure its economy (around local food and energy)
we rode out the shockwave... The local money system still
worked. Children went to school. People to their jobs. The
lights stayed on. There was food at the market stalls. Life went
on. For us. Others were not so fortunate....
The World 2055
The American Federal Government refuses to
follow the Euro-Zone model of Monetary Reform after a rebellion
in the Wall Street. So they didn't change. They were left unable
to adapt to changing times. Collapse shortly followed. The
balanced budget is back in style after 40 year's of hardship as
the USA attempted to pay back an unsustainable debt. Finally
China foreclosed and the Union broke apart. Chinese markets fell
considerably after the near-collapse of the US economy. They had
little left to
lose. Various American States declare independence
from the Federal Government and establish local credit-based currencies.
This was a return to how the War of Independence against the
British was funded.
A flood of Climate Change refugees head north and south out of
the former-United States. Mexico and Canada struggle to cope
leading to border clashes. However, these events seemed trivial in comparison to what
happened next...
Pakistan and India become awash with Climate
Change refugees as the rivers run dry. The last glacier withered
to nothing. Events came to a head in the New Year of 2057.
Communal and ethnic fighting breaks out along the border. Many
die violently. Many from thirst and starvation. The subcontinent
breaks out into factional wars for the last few remaining areas
of habitable land. Border disputes escalate. In February 2057
Military rule is declared in India. On March 27th 2057 maverick
Indian Army Officers take control of India's Nuclear
weapons and launch a strike on Karachi and Hyderabad. Pakistan
retaliates within two hours with short-range missiles taking out
Jodhpur and Ahmedabad. Both Governments collapse, their
countries in chaos. People's Republic of China's troops invade
from north and threaten nuclear strikes against anyone who gets
in their way. Soon the Chinese have control of the remaining
Nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, refugees head in all directions.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan close their borders resulting in
further fighting. Few refugees make it past Kabul. China, with
its own problems, don't allow them north. Western aid
efforts are futile so China is left to feed the sub-continent.
China, by now, can barely feed itself...
It is always darkest just before dawn. This
was our lowest point but life always seemed better from this
point onwards. From now on everything changed. The sleep-walk
was over. It was a new day.
Commentary: On Tuesday 17th April 2007 the UN Security
Council held a day-long debate on the security implications of
climate change. Nuclear confrontation between India and
Pakistan is a well-known Climate-Change-based scenario that
Pentagon planners use in strategic security exercises. David
King, the UK Government's chief scientific adviser in 2004
claims that climate change is a far greater threat to the
security of the world than international terrorism. John Ashton,
the Foreign Secretary's Special Representative for Climate
Change, stated that "there is every reason to believe that as
the 21st century unfolds, the security story will be bound
together with climate change." In its 2008 report the Oxford
Research Group highlighted the multiple socio-economic
disruptions generated by climate change. Over the next decades,
the three essential resources for human life will be food, water
and energy. Rapid climate change, the peaking of oil and the
growth in population makes all of them less secure and will
engender extensive refugee movement and civil unrest. In 2007
the UK Ministry of Defence invested £12million in the Hadley
Centre to research which areas of the world will undergoes
climate stress leading to conflicts. A 2007 report in the US
note that "while both the stability of the civil order and
its ability to suddenly collapse are prima facie political
occurrences, they are almost invariably precipitated by a
witches' brew of causal factors, which can include climate or
weather stress."
Note 1: Be under no
illusion that the worst effects of Climate Change will not be in
High Wycombe. It isn't all about rising sea levels and Polar
Bears. The disastrous effects of events half-way around the
world will still effect us all. Going post-carbon is a national
security issue.
Note 2: After 200 years
of Fossil Fuel use so much of our future Global Warming is
already "locked-in" to the system. Whatever we do now - bad
things CAN still happen. However we can still save ourselves
from the very worse possible outcomes. If we haven't scaled back
our fossil fuel usage dramatically by 2015, a brief nuclear
exchange will NOT be our worse-case-scenario...
Note 3: We can plan
ahead and mitigate risk at International, National and Local
level. The situation is not hopeless. We can rebuild our
local economies, our local energy and local food systems to
insulate ourselves from the shock of war or economic collapse.
Our low-carbon economy will, after thirty years, start to
mitigate the worst effects of climate change and help avert
further strife.
High Wycombe 2060
Wycombe Air Park comes alive again with an
Airship Fly-In. It is the idea of a local Australian refugee and
entrepreneur. These new solar-powered aerial vehicles were
tethered down between rows of potatoes. Visitors took joy-rides
to take photo's of this green and pleasant Buckinghamshire Town
from the sky. For all the children it is the first time they have
ever flown. The Town launches "Transition Pioneer Day" as
a town-wide Holiday to be celebrated on the first Monday in
August. The Town's first "History of Transition" is written by
one of its founder's (now 90 years old and one of only two
survivors from the original pioneers). He says "It was a close
run thing - it was good we started early, it stopped so much
suffering." Many of the young people reading the book are
astonished to learn that the 'great transition' was actively
opposed by some as an unnecessary 'lifestyle
choice'. His other claim, that back in 2009 local newspapers
actually published letters sceptical of man-made Climate Change, were not believed. Several
members of the public claimed that Climate Change Denial was a
myth and that there was no evidence that it existed here. The
argument continued until a historian recovers the letters in
local Library archives. Their re-publication shocks the Town. A
few cranks maintain that the letters were faked and that Climate
Change Denial was just a hoax. Nobody takes them seriously
anymore.
A young girl called Rebecca writes a letter
to the local newspaper apologising for her Great-Grandfather's
Climate Change Denial letters written to the paper fifty years
earlier. It sparks a furious row about who should apologise for
what. The Newspaper sells lots of
copies.
By now the American economic problems and the
final Indo-Pakistan war has deeply effected everyone. Old
barriers between the communities were breached. People now
really talk to each other. Everybody knows somebody who died.
Remarkably there is little blame for what happened between
Pakistani and Indian neighbours. The majority blame Man Made
Climate Change. Everyone is to blame. Everyone is responsible.
Hence any single person's wasteful use of any remaining fossil
fuels is deeply frowned upon. "Remember Karachi" they shout.
There is only regret, not bitterness. Neighbours share food,
stories and jokes. Fences are mended. The last remnants of the
old-thinking are finally washed away. The idea that Climate
Change is something for the white middle-classes to worry about
vanishes. Now it is everyone's responsibility. People
genuinely talk openly about how "modern" and "progressive" the
High Wycombe district is. Everyone takes credit for the area's
growing energy, economic and food self-resilience. We look back
upon the last 50 years and wonder what on earth the fuss was all
about. The simple need to change seemed so obvious in
retrospect. The views of far-right Nationalists fade as their
form of polemic seems at odd with this new age of reason. At
least in this corner of Buckinghamshire.
The World 2060
Saudi Arabia shuts down Oil Production from
its eight largest fields declaring the "Oil Age" closed. The
Kingdom now has the world's largest collection of Solar Power
Stations distribution power to the Middle East and Asia through
super-grids. Scientists tell us that atmospheric CO2 levels have
now stabilised and population is now starting to fall back to
sustainable levels. However radioactivity from the
Indio-Pakistan War can be detected around the globe leaving a
long cancer legacy. Two billion displaced people find homes
elsewhere and count themselves lucky.
Tree planting peaks and
there are new fears of "Peak Wood"..... |
