The World endowment of Oil was originally 2 trillion barrels. We used half in 125 years. Due to compound Economic Growth the rest will be gone within 30 years. (Think India & China.) The first half was easy to extract and of high quality. Production rises to a 'peak' after which production slows, quality falls and the energy used in extraction increases. Peak Oil is not about 'running out of oil' but it is a supply & demand problem. In 2025 the demand for Oil will rise by 60% yet the supply will have fallen to 1985 levels. We are at Peak today. Of all Fossil Fuels, Oil is uniquely energy dense and easy to transport. Fertilizers, plastics, fabrics, medicine, computers, you name it, are all made of oil. For every calorie of food ten calories of fossil fuels were burnt to grow it, transport it, package it, cool it, heat it and process it.
The OPEC Embargo in the 1970's only restricted supply by 5% yet prices quadrupled over night. In the 2000 fuel blockade supermarket shelves emptied within a few days. No substitute for Oil is as abundant, as practical or as cheap. Modern industrialised society is desperately addicted to cheap energy & transport. It is built into our paradigm making all alternatives unthinkable. To make things worse - Oil is a relatively 'clean' fossil fuel in comparison to coal. Substituting coal will accelerate Climate Change.
Source: ASPO July 2008 (Association for the Study of Peak Oil)
Source: ASPO July 2008 (Association for the Study of Peak Oil)
Source: ASPO July 2008 (Association for the Study of Peak Oil)
UK Gas Imports Projection
Source: National Grid
What is the Transition Initiative?
The “Transition” network was established in 2007 building upon the work of founders Rob Hopkins and Ben Brangwyn. Rob started in the town of Kinsale in 2004 with his Master Thesis on “Energy Descent Pathways – Evaluating potential responses to Peak Oil” with the University of Plymouth. His central hypothesis was that western societies are dependent upon cheap oil and that an unplanned interruption in supply would be disastrous. He went on to suggest that Communities could rebuild their resilience by re-discovering local patterns of sustainability. The response would be community-led. His ideas were tested in Kinsale and touched a raw nerve of growing anxiety throughout the global community - the idea exploded with several towns copying the principle in quick succession. It was an idea whose time had come. Communities were no longer willing to be led. Climate Change was looming. The writing was on the wall. Ideas of resource depletion on a finite planet were intuitive yet we seemed to be accelerating rather than braking. One by one communities stepped up to tackle the problem. The “Transition Model” was born and has been adopted by hundreds of communities across the UK and globally including Bristol, Brighton and Nottingham. Funding from the Tudor Trust has put the model on a firm foundation such that it now offers support, training and events.
Contact Us
Phone us on +44 (0) 1494 858390 or write to the Transition Town High Wycombe's Chairman at:
Mark Brown, Krofire House, 5 Richard Gardens, High Wycombe, Bucks HP13 7LT
Altrnatively please E:Mail one of the Management Committee Officers listed below:
