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 Well
known to the general public but its impact is not well
understood. "Global Warming" is a misleading term. "Climate
Chaos" is more accurate. Although mankind is only responsible
for an extra 5% of Carbon in the atmosphere our contribution is
out of balance with nature's ability to absorb it. The other 95%
would be absorbed, our extra is not. So it builds up year after
year. Today Carbon Dioxide levels are 27% higher than at any
point in the last 600,000 years raising surface temperatures by
0.7C. This has a dramatic effect upon weather with more storms,
floods and droughts. This will impact farming and the price of
food. Suggested measures to mitigate the effect upon humans
assume an endless supply of petroleum products & cheap energy
yet Peak Oil will make such mitigation too expensive. You can't
tackle one without understanding the other. Each can make the
other worse yet they share the same solutions.
Did you know that it doesn't
matter whether or not humans caused Climate Change or not? It
doesn't even matter whether we are having Global Warming or
Global Cooling. ANY change in our climate threatens us because
of our massively over-extended population, our utter reliance
upon fossil fuels and our excessively globalised world. In the
snows of winter did a call centre in Mumbai keep the food shops
stocked? Where does your food come from? Where does your gas
come from? How about the oil? In times of very-little major
change and wide-spread abundance we can happily outsource every
one of life's essentials to some place a thousand miles yonder.
However, in times of change, crazy weather and shortages we must
learn to look a little closer to home for our sources of
security.
Climate Change Mitigation,
Politics and Risk
We are at risk of tipping the
climate into a positive carbon feedback cycle - the runaway
greenhouse effect. Atmospheric CO2 parts per million
(ppm) concentration stands at 387ppm today. It rises 2ppm per
year. If we make drastic GHG emission cuts such it peaks at
400ppm in 2016 then it will result in a 1.1 to 2.00C
rise in global temperature - but we might be lucky (75%
probability) and avoid a carbon feedback cycle. Most life on
Earth will cease at 800ppm where we exceed 50C. Some
reckon the we cannot let 2016 come and go with out stopping the
rise in CO2 ppm (see
www.onehundredmonths.org) whilst others believe that the
only acceptable CO2
threshold is as low as 350ppm (see
www.350.org). The Stern Review recommends stabilising to
550ppm by 2050 (costing 1% of GDP). It is simply a matter of how
much risk we are willing to live with.
Graph courtesy of NASA's
Goddard Institute for Space Studies (www.data.giss.nasa.gov)
Global policy is likely to
resemble the Contraction and Convergence (“C&C”) Framework from
the Global Commons Institute (GCI).
It applies a principle of equity for all, ie, we all have the same right
to produce CO2. So we can plot lines for our nations
current per-capita footprint to the sustainable equity footprint
at some future point and that will represent the rate at which
we HAVE to cut emissions. We would have to cut CO2
emissions by 90% by 2030. (Alternatively, to meet the 400ppm
deadline in 2016, we have to aim to cut GHG emissions by 60%
within ten years.) As a country our Government has committed us
to cut CO2
emissions 12.5% below 1990 levels before 2012 (under the Kyoto
Protocol) and by 60% by 2050. The figures are only different
because of the level of risk our leaders POLITICALLY are willing
to face. However the choice is clear. We have to make enormous
cuts and quickly. There is nothing to stop Local Councils
adopting a Target-Based Contraction Framework based upon any of
these figures.
Climate Change in Graphs
Graph courtesy of United
Nations Environment Programme (GRID-Arendal)
www.grida.no
Graph courtesy of the CRU (Climate Research
Unit) from data provided by the UK Met Office and the Hadley
Centre (www.cru.uea.ac.uk)
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What is the Transition Initiative?
The “Transition” network was established in 2007 building
upon the work of founders Rob Hopkins and Ben Brangwyn. Rob
started in the town of Kinsale in 2004 with his Master Thesis on
“Energy Descent Pathways – Evaluating potential responses to
Peak Oil” with the University of Plymouth. His central
hypothesis was that western societies are dependent upon cheap
oil and that an unplanned interruption in supply would be
disastrous. He went on to suggest that Communities could rebuild
their resilience by re-discovering local patterns of
sustainability. The response would be community-led. His ideas
were tested in Kinsale and touched a raw nerve of growing
anxiety throughout the global community - the idea exploded with
several towns copying the principle in quick succession. It was
an idea whose time had come. Communities were no longer willing
to be led. Climate Change was looming. The writing was on the
wall. Ideas of resource depletion on a finite planet were
intuitive yet we seemed to be accelerating rather than braking.
One by one communities stepped up to tackle the problem. The
“Transition Model” was born and has been adopted by hundreds of
communities across the UK and globally including Bristol,
Brighton and Nottingham. Funding from the Tudor Trust has put
the model on a firm foundation such that it now offers support,
training and events.
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Contact Us
Phone us on +44 (0) 1494 858390 or write to
the Transition Town High Wycombe's Chairman at:
-
Mark Brown, Krofire House, 5 Richard
Gardens, High Wycombe, Bucks HP13 7LT
Altrnatively please E:Mail one of the
Management Committee Officers listed below:
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