 Well known to the general public but its impact is not well understood. "Global Warming" is a misleading term. "Climate Chaos" is more accurate. Although mankind is only responsible for an extra 5% of Carbon in the atmosphere our contribution is out of balance with nature's ability to absorb it. The other 95% would be absorbed, our extra is not. So it builds up year after year. Today Carbon Dioxide levels are 27% higher than at any point in the last 600,000 years raising surface temperatures by 0.7C. This has a dramatic effect upon weather with more storms, floods and droughts. This will impact farming and the price of food. Suggested measures to mitigate the effect upon humans assume an endless supply of petroleum products & cheap energy yet Peak Oil will make such mitigation too expensive. You can't tackle one without understanding the other. Each can make the other worse yet they share the same solutions.
Did you know that it doesn't matter whether or not humans caused Climate Change or not? It doesn't even matter whether we are having Global Warming or Global Cooling. ANY change in our climate threatens us because of our massively over-extended population, our utter reliance upon fossil fuels and our excessively globalised world. In the snows of winter did a call centre in Mumbai keep the food shops stocked? Where does your food come from? Where does your gas come from? How about the oil? In times of very-little major change and wide-spread abundance we can happily outsource every one of life's essentials to some place a thousand miles yonder. However, in times of change, crazy weather and shortages we must learn to look a little closer to home for our sources of security. Climate Change Mitigation, Politics and Risk We are at risk of tipping the climate into a positive carbon feedback cycle - the runaway greenhouse effect. Atmospheric CO2 parts per million (ppm) concentration stands at 387ppm today. It rises 2ppm per year. If we make drastic GHG emission cuts such it peaks at 400ppm in 2016 then it will result in a 1.1 to 2.00C rise in global temperature - but we might be lucky (75% probability) and avoid a carbon feedback cycle. Most life on Earth will cease at 800ppm where we exceed 50C. Some reckon the we cannot let 2016 come and go with out stopping the rise in CO2 ppm (see www.onehundredmonths.org) whilst others believe that the only acceptable CO2 threshold is as low as 350ppm (see www.350.org). The Stern Review recommends stabilising to 550ppm by 2050 (costing 1% of GDP). It is simply a matter of how much risk we are willing to live with. 
Graph courtesy of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (www.data.giss.nasa.gov) Global policy is likely to resemble the Contraction and Convergence (“C&C”) Framework from the Global Commons Institute (GCI). It applies a principle of equity for all, ie, we all have the same right to produce CO2. So we can plot lines for our nations current per-capita footprint to the sustainable equity footprint at some future point and that will represent the rate at which we HAVE to cut emissions. We would have to cut CO2 emissions by 90% by 2030. (Alternatively, to meet the 400ppm deadline in 2016, we have to aim to cut GHG emissions by 60% within ten years.) As a country our Government has committed us to cut CO2 emissions 12.5% below 1990 levels before 2012 (under the Kyoto Protocol) and by 60% by 2050. The figures are only different because of the level of risk our leaders POLITICALLY are willing to face. However the choice is clear. We have to make enormous cuts and quickly. There is nothing to stop Local Councils adopting a Target-Based Contraction Framework based upon any of these figures. Climate Change in Graphs 
Graph courtesy of United Nations Environment Programme (GRID-Arendal) www.grida.no 
Graph courtesy of the CRU (Climate Research Unit) from data provided by the UK Met Office and the Hadley Centre (www.cru.uea.ac.uk) | What is the Transition Initiative? The “Transition” network was established in 2007 building upon the work of founders Rob Hopkins and Ben Brangwyn. Rob started in the town of Kinsale in 2004 with his Master Thesis on “Energy Descent Pathways – Evaluating potential responses to Peak Oil” with the University of Plymouth. His central hypothesis was that western societies are dependent upon cheap oil and that an unplanned interruption in supply would be disastrous. He went on to suggest that Communities could rebuild their resilience by re-discovering local patterns of sustainability. The response would be community-led. His ideas were tested in Kinsale and touched a raw nerve of growing anxiety throughout the global community - the idea exploded with several towns copying the principle in quick succession. It was an idea whose time had come. Communities were no longer willing to be led. Climate Change was looming. The writing was on the wall. Ideas of resource depletion on a finite planet were intuitive yet we seemed to be accelerating rather than braking. One by one communities stepped up to tackle the problem. The “Transition Model” was born and has been adopted by hundreds of communities across the UK and globally including Bristol, Brighton and Nottingham. Funding from the Tudor Trust has put the model on a firm foundation such that it now offers support, training and events. |
Contact Us Phone us on +44 (0) 1494 858390 or write to the Transition Town High Wycombe's Chairman at: Mark Brown, Krofire House, 5 Richard Gardens, High Wycombe, Bucks HP13 7LT
Altrnatively please E:Mail one of the Management Committee Officers listed below: 
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