Tim Jackson "Prosperity Without Growth"

ISBN 978-1-84407-894-3. "Prosperity Without Growth - Economics for a Finite Planet" by Tim Jackson was published by Earthscan in 2009. The review hardback copy boasted 255 pages including no less than four forewords (with contributions by Bill McKibben and Herman E. Daly), appendices, notes and references. Tim's work is an extension to his work as Economics Commissioner for the Sustainable Development Commission (SDC). Specifically he draws upon the "Redefining Prosperity" study (2003). Go see www.sd-commission.org.uk/pages/redefining-prosperity.html. With so much academic work on the topic you would have thought Tim's opus may have offered a more definitive roadmap to a steady state economy. In this it does not really deliver. Rather Tim talks around the topic and largely delivers a thesis encapsulating the problem rather than much of a solution. Indeed the field of monetary reform seems to be far more advanced in terms of solutions - maybe because it has been around as long as there has been Banks. Despite the enormous debt (pun not intended) the modern form of no-growth economists owe to the field of monetary reform there is only one brief mention of the money supply and banking reform in Tim's book.

Given the modern role of the City of London in being the powerhouse of the British economy we should have looked forward to a more advanced thesis on the changes required to turn this monolith into a real tool for building prosperity rather than simply sucking money out of the real economy. Instead Jackson turns his attention to macro-economics and the social issues concerning the desire for growth. He correctly summarises one of the reasons why growth is so essential to a capitalist economy but makes little or no mention of the role of interest payments. Without growth the capitalist system will collapse. Jackson also makes no mention of population and steers a remarkably conservative and safe path around what must be one of the most dynamite topics of our times. He turns the entire exercise into a dry economics text-book. This is not going to popularise the topic in the manner of a 20th century pamphleteer. Instead Jackson's argument has three legs: we need to establish ecological bounds upon human activity. Second, we need to re-invent macro-economics. Third we need to fix the "damaging social logic" of consumerism. If not, writes the author, "by the end of the century, our children and grandchildren will face a hostile climate, depleted resources, the destruction of habitats, the decimation of species, food scarcities, mass migrations and almost inevitably war."

Jackson is at his best when deconstructing the myth that economic growth can somehow cure ecological ills: "In a world of 9 billion people all aspiring to western lifestyles, the carbon intensity of every dollar of output must be at least 130 time lower in 2050 than it is today. By the end of the century, economic activity will need to be taking carbon out of the atmosphere not adding to it." He explains that, although there has been some relative decoupling the possibility of absolute decoupling continues to elude us. He goes on "...we are desperate to believe in miracles. Technology will save us. Capitalism is good at technology. So let's just keep the show on the road and hope for the best. This delusional strategy has reached its limits. Simplistic assumptions that capitalism's propensity for efficiency will stabilise the climate and solve the problem of resource scarcity are almost literally bankrupt." As for the dilemma of our society he writes "We've carved up our sense of shared endeavour - sometimes (think of cars) quite literally - so that we can sell off the pieces at market price just to keep our economies growing. In the process, we leave ourselves bereft of common meaning and purpose." All stirring stuff but we are sure he is preaching to the converted. There is little here we don't know already. So when it comes down to the crunch of exactly HOW to reach steady-state prosperity Jackson blinks and leaves us with "...delivering these goals is a huge challenge. Ultimately, that task lies beyond the scope of any single book." Oh dear. Instead he suggests "a 'robust public discourse'. Opening out that discourse has been one of the key aims of this book." So it is all talks about talks. A delivery of clever waffle.

He rarely challenges the consensus other than to deliver this pithy observation: "Those inclined to question the consensus wisdom were swiftly denounced as cynical revolutionaries or modern day luddites. 'We do not agree with the anti-capitalists who see the economic crisis as a chance to impose their utopia, whether of a socialist or eco-fundamentalist kind', roared the Independent on Sunday late in 2008. 'Most of us in this country enjoy long and fulfilling lives thanks to liberal capitalism: we have no desire to live in a yurt under a workers' soviet.'" In this case "their utopia" spells continued human existence. Until we can answer this kind of blinkered conservatism then Jackson is just blowing in the wind. There is still hope as an EU Commission seeks to redefine the measurement of GDP but this is but a token. Much like monetary reform before it, there is much to be gained in real prosperity in a steady-state economy. However there are a vast array of forces pitched against such a necessary move. A small number of very wealthy and powerful people are not going to let there be any constraints upon them. It is in their nature to drive their resource base into the buffers rather than see any change in the status quo. Hence something dramatic will need to happen. Jackson isn't talking about drama. We need to be.

A dry academic work. Focussed on macro-economics and social issues rather than monetary reform.
Asks all the right questions and well describes the problem.

Naomi Klein "The Shock Doctrine"

Bjorn Lomborg "Smart Solutions to Climate Change"

Marek Kohn "Turned Out Nice"

ISBN 978-0-571-23815-6. "Turned out nice - How the British Isles will Change as the World Heats Up" by Marek Kohn was published by Faber & Faber in 2010. The paperback is 368 pages long including 9 chapters, notes, bibliography and index. The author has been described as "one of the best science writers we have" according to the back-page blurb. Other than that we learn nothing about the author and his is a name we remain unfamiliar with in terms of this topic. The title of the book pretty much tells you what it is about however you may be forgiven for thinking that this is a somewhat dry (pun unintended) retelling of climate predictions for Britain in 2100. In fact the weather, 90 years from now, is often incidental to the story that Kohn tries to weave. Most of this work reads like a travel guide to a future Britain. Its language is mostly quite unscientific as the author tries to capture the reader's imagination through a work of near-science-fiction. That isn't to say that it isn't based in the best science. It is. However the author does two things: firstly he divorces climate change from the coming energy crunch. It is only briefly mentioned. Secondly his predictions of the social and political evolution in Europe seem somewhat fanciful.

Kohn seems to expect that climate change, rather than being utterly divisive, will in fact heal all ill-will. Europe will expand southward and eastward to engulf the nations ruined by climate change. The author expects this reaction as opposed to the somewhat gut-reaction we might expect. Some of us would expect boat-fulls of refugees and a fortress-Europe reaction. I hope Kohn's vision is right. I fear I am not wrong.

Beyond this the writing remains somewhat flowery. This book is broadly techno-optimistic and socially-optimistic. In Kohn's Britain of 2100 there is no conflict or great hardship. He doesn't ask the obvious question about where all these refugees from Europe will live nor how will they all be fed. That is left to the imagination. This is not to say that I didn't enjoy this book. It is good and it is the first of its kind to appear that I know of. We must surely pass into a phase where we start to plan ahead for the Britain of 2100 or 2200. But here lies another gotcha. Kohn admits that there is a bit of a problem with his timeline. In 2100 not too much will have changed in Britain. Temperature will have risen around 3.5 degreesC and a shed-load of species will have made Britain their place of residence. This country will become a kind of Noah's Ark moored of the shores of a deserted Europe. Or is that a desert Europe? Life here will go on as before although a lot of social patterns may have changed. We will have adapted to the higher temperatures and the lower rainfall. But fast forward another 100 years to 2200 then the future isn't quite so rosy. The truth is that the worst that is to come is still hundreds of years away.

This doesn't make it easy to encourage people to change the carbon-intensive lifestyles which makes the role of Peak Oil so much more important. We will be lulled into a false-sense of security. The early 2010's may well be seen as a period of Global Warming paranoia in years to come. Only in the fullness of time will our great-great-grandchildren be able to appreciate our paranoia with the gift of hindsight. They won't see it as paranoia. They will see it as visionary. In this lies our dilemma. If tomorrow turns out to be so darn nice, then what will make us change our ways so that the day after tomorrow doesn't turn into some sci-fi movie? Your guess is as good as mine. I bought this book because I wanted to get into knowing about the highly specific threats to my home town. I didn't learn a great deal about specifics. I know it will be warmer. It will be wetter in winter and drier in summer. There will be less annual rainfall. Other than a scarcity of resources I didn't really learn much about the challenge our children will face nor how they resolved it. What I did learn though was this: no matter how "nice" it turns out here this won't last forever. In the meantime the floods of refugees will only make peak oil on this tiny island the true disaster. There will be a lot of people to feed and no cheap energy to do it with. To learn about that we must await for another book entirely.

Overly optimistic and somewhat vague about what happens after 2100.
A good overview of events to come.

Lovins "Oil Endgame"

ISBN 1-84407-194-4. "Winning the Oil Endgame - Innovation for Profits, Jobs and Security" written by Amory B Lovins, E Kyle Datta, Odd-Even Bustnes, Jonathan G Koomey and Nathan J Glasgow with forewords by George P Shultz and Sir Mark Moody-Stuart. If this books teaches us anything it is that it is possible to plan economic measures in advance of Peak Oil such that it a potential disaster can be turned into an economic advantage. Indeed it is only by ignoring the problem that it turns into a crisis. So why not get on with it? Well, this books seems to think Peak Oil will hit in 2040 which seems outlandish.... Therefore if they think we have all this time of course they can be relaxed about a slow 20 year cutover. They also underestimate the effects of Climate Change and ignore tipping points. Hence everything is a little unreal and over-relaxed. Maybe that is a good thing? Somehow.....We get so used to thinking of the Peak Oil and Climate Change challenges as being Global issues that it really stops us in our tracks when a group of individuals produce a book describing solutions for JUST ONE COUNTRY - the USA. This is clearly a policy document for the Whitehouse and was funded by the Pentagon. As such it has peculiarly US-centric view of the World and America's Foreign Policy. The authors would like to have told Americans that their Government has been utterly corrupted by Oil. However it all comes out in a shrouded language that will grate with most readers beyond the borders of the continental USA. An example of which is the description of multiple American 'Military interventions' in the Gulf Region as being for "stability" purposes. In the same paragraph the author notes (hopefully with irony) that, despite these efforts the Americans are resented as much as ever. This is a book about myopia inside the American Bubble and boundless techno-optimism. Technology will solve all problems if only Government would get out of the way of the Corporations. You couldn't get closer to the heart of Republican conservatives if you tried. The authors seriously believe there is no need for further energy taxation or further incentives (they then completely contradict this point!). The market will take care of everything - for Americans anyway. The basis for this assumption is fundamentally flawed for two reasons: firstly Lovin's statistical analysis suggests that the US Economy grows at a pace far greater than Oil Imports because of greater efficiency, but this ignores the impact of Globalisation which exported heavy industry to the Developing World whilst the US focussed on services and the money markets for wealth creation. Secondly, despite rising efficiency the US Economy keeps growing to suck in more Oil not less. Endless expansion of consumer products to every mortal being on the planet is impossible in a finite world - it doesn't matter how smart the technology. For every statistic in this book I have heard others that suggest the opposite. The problem is GROWTH. Business-as-usual assumes growth and with compound growth we will consume everything on the planet within the lifetime of our children. The US's 'lead' in wealth generation is because it excludes most of the rest of the world from the party. To read this book you would think that it was because they were terribly clever in using so much finite resource. Being able to print debt in your own currency base is no proof of a divine right to asset strip the planet. Occasionally Lovins will present an anecdote to prove a point whilst ignoring the evidence that proves the opposite. An example of which is the claim that a Chemical Plant in Europe uses as much energy as the same US Company's Plants in America despite higher Fossil Fuel prices in Europe. That is a generalisation based upon just TWO Plants! The alternative conclusion is that the Americans just made their European plants as inefficient as their US ones. All the other evidence shows just how efficient Europe & Japan are in comparison to the US because of high Fossil Fuel Taxes. Price does work - a point Lovins concedes later on. This aside there are a lot of great facts and figures here to browse through and there is surprisingly much you can agree with. There is even brief mention of "Community" and "all levels of society" - however you quickly get the suspicion that their 'community' is Wall Street and 'society' is just the Board Room. When Lovins talks about 'local resilience' he doesn't mean a walking community - he means one where there is some local access to local fuel production so that everyone can keep driving their SUV's. Although he doesn't mention organic farming he does believe that biofuels will be produced in the US in a fashion that restores carbon back into the soil. Then it is admitted that this "environmental" aspect is largely promoted to get around WTO rules about subsidising farms. Around page 180 onwards Lovins moves on to solutions. Some of the jingoistic language is tempered in favour of genuine Government intervention in the market through a variety of measures such as feebates and military procurement. You do get a one-half page about how suburbia could be redesigned so that people could walk and cycle to where they need to be but, apart from this brief nod, the rest of the solutions actually read as if they intend to drive up car ownership, not deter it. Lovins wants to get the US public out of their inefficient SUV's and into slightly more efficient SUV's. This is on the basis that the American consumer will NEVER sacrifice any of the American Dream for the future of their children. Through the book the evidence is largely based upon programs running in Europe and Japan. This goes to show just how far behind the rest of the world the US is. This books shows no signs of the US catching up. It desires greater efficiency at a time where the Europeans and Japanese are already looking towards reengineering Communities so they don't need, or want, cars. As such they are slowly moving to where we were 20 years ago. Considering the rhetoric of recent US Administrations (Reagan onwards) this is some form of progress but it isn't enough. Maybe social change is the final and bitterest pill for the US citizens to swallow. Fantasies like this only stall for time. Full of great ideas that I would wish would come true - as long as I don't look out of a window. Whereas the American military lusts after its "full spectrum dominance" of the battlefield maybe they should be considering full spectrum dominance on the solutions for Peak Oil and Climate Change, ie, all possible solutions - including those largely ignored in this book. The end of oil is not a game. You are not going to win it. Deal with it and move on. A politically inspired wet dream.... But, oddly enough, still worth a read!

Marginally less right-wing than George Bush. It makes quite sweeping conclusions with little evidence.
We deserve a book like this to give us inspiration for what we should be working towards in the techological field.

Lomborg "Skeptical Environmentalist"

ISBN 0 521 01068 3. Bjørn Lomborg's "The Skeptical Environmentalist - Measuring the Real State of the World". Love him or hate him Lomborg sure stirred up a hornets nest with this one. Widely quoted within the environmental movement itself, this has been a phenomena that could not be ignored. Why all the fuss? Although now largely out of date (published 2001 by Cambridge University Press) he compared, what he calls the environmental "litany" to statistical evidence to see how bad things really are. For an alleged member of Greenpeace Lomborg sure takes an active dislike to the polemic of environmental activists. What he comes up with is a mixed bag. He tries to prove that our resources are not running out, that fewer people are starving and that all is well with the World. The Forests are not dying, Global Warming won't kill you and the species are not dying out as quickly as claimed. As such he provides a valuable and level-headed contribution to the debate about, for example, such pre-conceived links between pesticides and cancer. We learn how GM foods are not necessarily bad for us, and so on. As such this work is not original and many have analysed just how far society has abandoned enlightened thought. Science and statistics have been abandoned and hijacked by anyone with a point to prove. It would be nice of Lomborg had restricted his argument to the facts. Despite claiming that he is using the facts against the myths he only trades one set of irrational arguments for another. His work is as subjective and qualitative as any of the people and organisations he criticises. His argument about Global Warming is largely mystifying to the average reader. Even worse, his analysis of Oil supplies are just plain wrong. He never mentions standard geological evidence for Hubbert's Peak (apart from a brief mention in the end notes where he tries to claim that Hubberts Curve only applies to the USA - maybe like the law of gravity?) Whilst even the oil companies make no secret that Oil supplies peak sometime around 2015, Lomborg ignores all the evidence and draws a convenient line of expanding supplies up until 2001. This is years short of the known peak. This kind of cornucopian idealism is at odds with the facts. Indeed, to continue to propagate absurd ideas of endless supplies of Energy, that will be continually renewed by "human ingenuity", undermines many of the valid arguments he makes. Some of his arguments are circular and confuse cause and effect. Despite arguing that we need do nothing about Global Warming for years he goes onto say that CO2 emissions will be negated by switching to Solar Power. Well, why would we do that then? Maybe because we are worried about Global Warming? And why is there a correlation between wealth and natural resources? Is it because your natural resources are your wealth or, as Lomborg claims, that the wealthier you the more you look after your environment? A useful book but somewhat undermined by its author's enthusiasm for iconoclastic idealism. Worth a read. Just the once. For a rebuttal of Lomborg's claims go to www.lomborg-errors.dk/skeptical.htm.

Deeply flawed in many places.
Worth a read for some good points well made.

Kunstler "Long Emergency"

ISBN 1-84354-453-9. Published by Grove Atlantic in 2005. I read this book in January and February 2007. Despite the blurb on the book this is not intended for a universal readership. When they use the word "we" they, of course, mean the citizens of the United States of America. This is a parochial Book for a parochial people. However (unusually for me) I don't hold this against the author, it is only the blurb of the Publishing House. The Publisher made other mistakes. Kunstler wrote three versions of his book and submitted it all jammed together. The publisher should edit this down into one book. They didn't, rendering it too long and repetitive. Kunstler's knowledge of the people of the Middle East and Europe is poor. He has obviously never been to these places and his manner borders upon xenophobic. Likewise his attitude towards young blacks and black culture is racist. In fact he is a perfect white middle class product of up-state New York. He has read the New York Times for his entire life and his whole world is constructed around the world-myth it propagates. The irony of the author owning two homes passes with no comment despite the sarcasm in which he treats his other SUV-loving Americans. If you want to read the twisted logic of the neo-con reason for war in Iraq then read this book. This is meant to be a book about the decline of western civilisation through the effects of climate change and the end of oil. Despite his obvious ignorance Kunstler accidentally manages to deliver on the title of the book. If someone had edited out the obvious hogwash then it might be more reasonable. As soon as he gets around to his main topic then it all works. It charts just how large parts of North America will descend into chaos, violence and disease in the next fifty years before it all reverts back to an agrarian existence. He seems to have an overtly rosy view of US gun culture and fails to see that civil war is a more likely outcome in a country saturated with guns. The 'mad max' scenario would play more true in the world he writes of. However, putting these criticisms to one side here is a perfectly good book about how western civilisation will transform into a post-oil existence. It is a reasonable lesson for Europeans too - particularly inhabitants of the United Kingdom who have gone the furthest in copying the US Suburban model minus the guns. This remains possibly the only book to chart this uncomfortable future but sadly it is so flawed that the message gets lost. Worth a read if you have the patience to study it properly.

Not very worldy-wise. Alarmingly conservative.
A good picture of how Climate Change and Peak Oil could dessimate American life.

Laughton "Tapping the Sun"

ISBN 1 90217 529 8. Published in 2006 by the Centre for Alternative Technology. The perfect companion to Chris Laughton's "Home Heating with Wood" although it is much shorter - weighing in at only 56 pages versus 117 - half the size. This book is in its fourth edition with the first and second having being written by Brian Horne whilst the third was written by Pete Geddes. Hence why it is so short remains a mystery. Although short it is densely packed with loads of information, pictures and diagrams. By the end of this book any novice will be well armed with every piece of information required to select their own installation even if they are having it installed by professionals. You will know the right questions to ask so there is no danger of any 'pro' befuddling you with the science. Chris is very honest about how much these installations cost and their pay-back period. He admits they may never pay for themselves but then doesn't really mention the fact that oil and gas prices are bound to increase faster than inflation whereas the sun is always free. Yes, you can install such systems yourself but most of us would be terrified at the prospect and Chris is equally honest about the hazards. However, most of the pitfalls mentioned come from much older systems and from saving money on cheap plumbing work. The book largely discusses the different varieties of central heating systems into which to plug your Solar Panels. If you are into plumbing this will be for you but I admit to finding this largely dull! So you get a good run down of heat transfer systems, hot water storage and thermal storage devices. Some of the advice is invaluable - such as how to calculate the size of the Thermal Store and your Radiators. There is probably no better 50 page guide on this topic on the market. Another must have.

Maybe a little short.
Probably the only book you'll ever need on this topic in the UK. Brilliant.