David Archer "The Long Thaw"

ISBN 978-0-691-13654-7. "The Long Thaw - How Humans are changing the Next 100,000 Years of Earth's Climate" by David Archer was published by Princeton University Press in 2009. Although billed as a short book Archer's "Long Thaw" is a longish 180 pages including a further reading list and index. Unlike other books on the topic this is not about Man-Made Climate Change within a human-timescale. Archer takes us into the universe of Man-Made Climate Change from the Earth's point of view, ie, into geological time spans. Hence he puts our narrow focus of the next 100 years into the context of the last few million years and the next 100,000 years which - as the subtitle suggests - is how long it will take for the planet to recover fully from the damage that we are doing. What the author does is quite interesting in fact. He is not much of an alarmist but he knows how to answer the sceptics' doubts. He does spend much of the time dealing with some denial arguments and does not completely dismiss them. He does recognise them and agrees that there is much we don't know, whilst (at the same time) showing these counter-arguments do nothing to undermine the overwhelming evidence for mankind's fingerprint on the climate.

This is the subtle point that Archer makes - quibbling over the temperature record in 1998 seems slightly dumb when we can see that mankind's burning of fossil fuels will leave a lasting impression upon this planet's climate. A hundred-thousand years is a very long time. He makes this deduction by examining the earth-chemistry of the Carbon-Cycle and how it can be uncovered in the fossil record. Being an oceanographer Archer goes into great depths (pun not intended) on the topic of how oceans absorb carbon. He shows how the oceans would happily absorb most of our excess emissions and the resulting acidity would finally settle out into the sediments. However it does this in a geological timescale - never fast enough to deal with our carbon spike. We'll have to wait. We get to see how the cycles of our orbits around the sun, and the activity of the sun itself, pushes us into and out of Glacial periods. We learn that we are in an inter-glacial period of a major ice-age, ie, a long ice-age period punctuated with warm spells with less ice - which is where we are now. If you go back millions of years we come out of the ice age and into a period when there were lush hot jungles at the poles - this time period is just too far back for us to learn too much about our current condition. The last 650,000 years of history is more than enough to tell us what will happen in the next 100,000 years. The author goes on to look at feedback mechanisms and is quite conservative in his assessment showing that, in his area of expertise, he see no reason to be too alarmist about deep-sea methane as, even in the period of history that most resembles today, there is no evidence of any sudden releases leading to an accelerated runaway climate change. There is no scare stories or climate change porn here. It is all very unemotional. Archer chooses to make sea level rise his poster child for the victims of Climate Change. No polar bears drowning in his book. Since sea level rises lag temperature by hundreds if not thousands of years we are unlikely to see anything dramatic in this century. The 50 meters or more will happen - in geologic time. There are many unknowns in the dynamics of glacier and ice-sheet melt so we may see some more ice-melt than the IPCC suggest.

In his Epilogue Archer does throw in the question of ethics. He generally agrees with the mainstream in saying that we need to decarbonise our economies as early as possible as it is simply a good investment. The earlier we do it the cheaper it is. He briefly goes through economic discounting to show how modern economics is in danger of doing nothing as it has no long term nor moral aspect. The author (rightly) does not deem it fair to leave the clean-up bill to our great-great-grandchildren hence we must internalise the real cost of carbon into the price of fossil fuels. One interesting point he makes is that if we just stopped burning coal this would go a long way to tackling the problem. Since we have vast quantities of coal, whilst Gas and Oil are half-gone, then we should let peak oil & gas tackle the problem through market dynamics. Of course we would have all agree to leave the coal in the ground and that won't happen quickly - but it is a useful reminder that the days of cheap oil and gas are over. There is so much that can be done at only a few percentage points of GDP so why do we wait? Well, because everyone has to do it together so that we do not repeat the tragedy of the commons. Archer leaves us with this final thought (I paraphrase): If we add up all the energy trapped by the CO2 from a gallon of petrol over its atmospheric lifetime we find that our gallon will trap one hundred billion kilocalories (100,000,000,000) of useless unwanted green-house heat. This is 40 million times more energy that we got out of driving in our cars with that gallon of petrol.

Archer finds similar quirky statistics and scatters them through the book so it is worth paying attention if you wish for something to add to your party anecdotes. For example the basic physics of the greenhouse effect were figured out by Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier in 1827. In 1869 Svante Arrhenius spent two years working out the planetary temperature gain if atmospheric CO2 level were to double. He reckoned 4 to 6 degrees Celsius. After 130 years of climate science (now driven by computers) we have worked out that this is closer to 2.5 to 4 degrees Celsius. Not much has really changed in that 130 years. Globally about 2 billion dollars per year are being spent on climate change research. That is just 5% of the profits of the Exxon Mobil oil company. Much of the author's chemistry and in-depth science will blind most people. This is not popular science. It is hard science and sometimes comes across as a text book of Climate Change Chemistry for dummies. Not that interesting but of use for the hardcore student in such matters. This often isn't easy reading but it does exactly what it says on the cover. A novel view of the problem.

A bit of a text book making for a dull read in places.
A very conservative assessment of where we are free from emotion, scare stories or climate porn.

Lester R. Brown "Plan B 3.0"

ISBN 978 0 393 330878 8. "Plan B 3.0 - Mobilizing to Save Civilization" by Lester R Brown. Lester is the president of the Earth Policy Institute and, if memory serves correctly, was often quoted in Lomborg's "Skeptical Environmentalist" book as the source of statistical half-truths about the state of the Environment. Hence we approached this book with some caution even if Lomborg's position on Peak Oil and Climate Change is indefensible. However, the reader has no need to worry as this book is spot-on. Ten out of ten. Perfect. Well, nearly. The only criticism is Lester's drive to solve nearly all of the World's problems. Hence he does devote enormous amount of space to solving poverty without always making a good link between human poverty and ecological decay. Of course the link is there but the problems of resource depletion and climate change are ones of industrialisation and affluence. The point of poverty is that it is linked with excessive population growth which puts pressure on natural resources. Tackling population and its root causes - often poor education and civil strife, will eventually help tackle other global issues that are more pressing. Tackling poverty can never be a primary objective. Neither can the matter of what Lester calls "failed states" which he returns to again and again. He sees the concept of the failed state as something cause by a decaying environment. Others may see things differently. States may collapse if they are undermined by the foreign policies of super-powers or by the policies of the World Trade Organisation, IMF and World Bank. None of these issues are addressed by Lester who sticks firmly to the Washington consensus on these matters - ie, it is somebody else's fault and that lots of charity will help. Not all would agree. These faults to one side you do get a very upbeat view of our abilities to tackle climate change and peak oil through a wide range of measure from redesigning our cities through to building far more wind farms. Lester is well know for his drive to get the world planting to trees and this is to his credit. He has a clear vision of what the problems are and his plan is a good one - well researched and reasonable. He has many supporters - us included. When it comes to matters of energy and transport his advice is sound. Plant trees, build countless wind-turbine farms, get people out of their cars, raise energy efficiency. Some of this work is a little like the Rocky Mountain Institute studies but Lester's work is far more International in nature and far less dependent on the techno-fix. He links Climate Change to food production directly which is a refreshing change as most writers waffle on about rising sea levels - as if that ever killed anyone. He also writes at length about the problems we are facing with water supplies. Water really shouldn't be a problem but according to Lester we are pumping the wells dry as fast as the oil wells. Who would have thought? He makes no mention of the hydrogen economy and laughs off Nuclear as a non-starter. This is also very refreshing. His point is the same as ours - we don't need a techno-fix - we have all the technology we need. The problem is deforestation and too many people. He compares the way we balance the books to the way Enron balanced theirs - ie, buy leaving the liabilities off the books. Essentially we are bankrupt. Plan B is a rescue plan. He makes no bones about it - we need a wartime mobilisation. He is right. Take this as a blue-print, but mostly for national action. It is less of a guide for individuals or communities but this is not a fault. There are other good books for that kind of work. Brilliant. Recommended. Buy copies for everyone you know and anyone with influence.

I just wish there was the political gotcha to make it happen.
Five thumbs-up as this is a great book. Recommended.

Shaun Chamberlin "The Transition Timeline"

ISBN 978-1-900322-56-0. "The Transition Timeline for a local, resilient future" was published by Green Books in 2009. Shaun Chamberlin's opus weighs in at 190 pages of the same layout and format as Rob Hopkins' "Transition Handbook" (who also supplies the foreword to this work). This work was originally aimed at those who were working on their Community's Energy Descent Action Plan. We loved the cover artwork - as memorable and iconic as that drawn for Rob's original handbook. We get five book sections: "Cultural stories and Visions of the Future", "A Deeper Look at the Transition Vision", "Making Best use of this Timeline", "Global Context - Climate Change/Fuel Depletion" and "UK Context". Shaun's work is as next to perfect as you could wish to get at this stage. Seeing as this is only the second "Transition" book published to date (these words written in September 2009 in the brink of the "Local Food" book launch). This goes beyond Rob Hopkins original work which leant heavily on theory and bizarre management games. In fact it manages to be far superior because the Transition narrative only gets better as theory turns into practice. By now we are starting to see how the pioneering Transition Visions are starting to flesh out. We get a good clear guide as to how it is our very culture that has to change.

You can argue that the term "cultural stories" is largely meaningless to the layman and smacks of a work of fiction - but the contents of the visions certainly withstand scrutiny - even if is tempting to see it all as wishful thinking. We know that these changes in our thinking have to happen. However in the acid-test of the real-world we don't see it happening beyond that minority of cultural-creatives inside the Transition Movement.

It remains unclear as to how we enthuse an apathetic community to get out of bed and start to work on the EDAP. How do we reach out? That book has not yet been written. Instead we do get something quite surprising in Shaun's work. Half-way through the book he runs out of "vision" material and starts musing on the combined effects of Climate Change and Peak oil. This is like a whole new book by itself and is probably the quite convincing and cohesive study of how the two forces inter-twine. Oil will certainly run out in time to terminate some of the very worse-case-scenarios modelled by the IPCC but there is still enough carbon left in the ground to push us through the tipping points that could trigger unstoppable climate change. Indeed, we have done so much damage already, with the first half of our fossil fuels, that a minimum of 2 degreesC rise this century is guaranteed. We'll be lucky to escape by the skin of our teeth. Shaun argues that drastic changes are now required to shut off the carbon pipeline. Transition is the only answer. There is no technology yet that can save us. We have to change. What a vision. Thoroughly recommended. Grim with a glimmer of hope.

A minor inclusion of daft play-acting games spoils the show..
Damn near perfect. Read it now.

David Boyle & Andrew Simms "The New Economics - A Bigger Picture"

Coming soon.
Coming soon.

Kingsley Dennis and John Urry "After the Car"

Coming soon.
Coming soon.

Brower "Consumer's Guide"

ISBN 0 609 80281 X. Full Title "The Consumer's Guide to Effective Environmental Choices - Practical Advice from the Union of Concerned Scientists". Written by Michael Brower and Warren Leon (both PhD). Published by Random House in 1999. Well, if you, like us, had never heard of the 'Union of Concerned Scientists' then there is a little section at the back to explain - an independent NGO the UCS (in the U.S.) conducts studies and public education in order to influence government policy for a 'healthier environment'. Whatever that is. The book kicks off with an amazingly dumb anecdote about how a group of keen recyclers drove a car stuffed with newspapers all over someplace in hicksville USA looking for a recycling center. The anecdote has no point to make about wasting finite fossil fuels or your carbon footprint - no. The book is so steeped in North American mega-consumption culture that this simple matter never arose. Much to our astonishment. The book continues in a similar fashion even if the intro was a lamentable low point that they do (thankfully) recover from. For readers in Central Asia, the far East, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Africa, well... Anywhere outside the USA, this book is mostly irrelevant. Its research (for what it is) is scientific but parochial. America is an exception to the rule. American's consume in a fashion that leave the average European as bewildered as European habits would bewilder a Sub-Saharan African. Hence many of the basic rules we learn as European low-carbon lifestyle devotees simply don't seem to apply to Americans. Some advice seems completely irrelevant and some is just plain wrong. At a time when tanker loads of precious Fossil Fuels can be saved by using bio-mass energy to heat our homes one of the primary recommendations of this report is that Americans must stop burning wood! Simple wood-burning stoves exist in Europe that meet strict no-smoke regulations. Apparently no such thing exists over the pond. On the other hand some of the reasoning is applicable. They correctly identify the American love of the automobile as a primary cause of Global Warming but seldom talk of cars. Americans now drive things called "light trucks". They have so far to go. In Europe our fridges have a low carbon footprint but in the USA they seem to guzzle energy like crazy for some reason. Likewise American spending patterns include categories for "firearms" and "swimming pool heaters". The book is out of date, lightweight on matters of resource depletion, and based on a couple of questionable studies. It is a vaguely useful read and the topic deserves far more research. It needs something like this for all major regions of the world. So, if you believe (as we do) that pollution and biodiversity threats are almost irrelevant in the face of Climate Change and Peak Oil then you will find this book next to useless. It does show how far America has to go to come even close to catching up with the rest of the Planet....

Heavily parochial to North America. Has a big wood-burning blindspot.
Actually gives you a useful overview and a good sense of scale on problems.

James Bruges "Big Earth Book"

ISBN 13 978 1 901970 87 6. Published by Alastair Sawday Publishing in 2007 with sponsorship from Yeo Valley Organic. When they say "BIG" they mean BIG. This is a coffee table heavyweight measuring 27cm x 20cm x 2.5cm (hardback) with 288 thick pages. The book is lavishly illustrated with large full-colour pictures and it looks like it is aimed at children ages 8 to 16 although I am sure adults will get a kick out of this. Despite the child-friendly layout the topic and language of the book is a far cry from the play ground. I was at first astonished then delighted as James explores the Economic fragility of this Globalised world. Indeed, the middle word of the title is misleading. This has nothing to do with the "Earth" in the typical 'ecology' sense. We all know that this planet will continue to circle the Sun for a good few billion years. Any loss of biodiversity today will finally be made up for my nature within a few million years. The only thing fragile about this "Earth" is the life of mankind. From the point of view of the Earth the existence of humans is a brief aberration in the scheme of things. Come and gone in the blinking of the geological eye. We are as Mayflies. No more. Why do we identify US as the "Earth"? We are not. The author states clearly he wishes to provoke the readership. If you give this to your kids thinking it will be about volunteering to save a few fluffy Panda's then you are in for a shock. Environmental destruction and loss of biodiversity - the typical litany of the Eco-type, is only a minor sub-topic. James is clearly well read on what damage mankind is doing to itself. You need only read the References section at the rear to know where he is coming from. He has used "The Economist", "New Scientist", Mark Lynas, Mayer Hillman, Aubrey Meyer, George Monbiot, Julian Darley, ASPO, Kenneth Deffeyes, Richard Heinberg, Roy Arundhati, George Soros, Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows, Jorgen Randers, Joseph Stiglitz, John Gray, James Lovelock, Gore Vidal, Greg Palast, Noam Chomsky, John Pilger and Michael T Klare to name but a few. James splits the book into four sections: "The Elements", "Money", "Power" and "Life". Ironically the last section is the weakest. The opening section details the well known litany of Climate Change & Ozone Depletion, but moves rapidly on to Peak Oil. Then, in "Money" he moves onto detail the problems of our Economies. He lists many alternative ideas for how a modern economic system could, and should, work. In "Power" he is largely writing on the Global Economy again but studies Third World Debt and the spread of American Hegemony. The "Life" section does not reach the heights of the middle two. It only raises the relevant point of Food Security. Here he struggles with his other chosen topics to illustrate the point he is making. The books just tales off into navel gazing. Maybe the Publishing house wanted the book a bit bigger so the author had to throw a few loose ideas into the back as padding? Apart from this minor criticism, this book does well to bang the drum about Money and Power and how it is destroying all of our collective futures. The author goes beyond books that say they offer solutions. James really does deliver. His pages sparkle with numerous bright ideas for alternative forms of human existence. Stunning. Buy this book now and scare your children into action. Don't be surprised if they don't rush out and save a hedgehog though... They are more likely to throw Molotov Cocktails at a G8 Summit after reading this!

The last section on "Life" is dispensable.
Fantastic quasi-political book in a format the kids and adults will love. Gives the whole picture. Brilliant.

Stephen Bushway "The New Woodburner's Handbook"

ISBN 978-0-88266-788-1. Stephen Bushway's "The New Woodburner's Handbook - A Guide to Safe, Healthy & Efficient Woodburning" was published by Storey Publishing in 1992. This book is eye-opening for all the wrong reasons. Firstly it is so very dated in being 17 years old and, secondly, it is a world removed because it covers the US market. All measurements are in Imperial and quantities of wood is discussed in "cords". As such it is a little like reading a Victorian Handbook on how to use a washboard. It has some quaint charm and is occasionally relevant. The early section (and several times through the book) reminds us how the modern wood-burning era in the U.S. began - the 1973 Oil Embargo. This seems appropriate but this is the only mention of Oil economics in the books as it doesn't look as if Peak Oil was on his mind when Bushway wrote this. The Author includes a section on U.S. Energy Policy in the early 1990's and this is quite illuminating as it paints a picture of an aspiration for a green energy revolution that does not seem to have happened. Talk about a wasted generation. Eight years of Clinton, eight years of Bush and it seems as if nothing happened in North America - still the same dreams, the same aspirations. American dreams unrealised. What is interesting for 1992 is just how much Global Warming features in the author's arguments for Wood Burning. It is almost as if time has stood still and we fell asleep in 1992 only to wake up in 2008 into a world where nothing had changed. It gives you a little hope that some Americans did "get it" back in the 1990's but it will leave you in despair that, despite those who "got it" it made no difference whatsoever. The economics of burning wood in the U.S. in the 1990's seemed very favourable with the author showing how much cheaper it was than Oil - hence its rising popularity among householders in North America. So much about this book stands out as seeming a little odd to the Northern European. There is a lengthy section of fire-safety that you would not get in similar books this side of the Atlantic. The reason is simple. Americans build their homes of wood so they need to be on the guard against the fire getting confused between fuel and walls. Stephen is a Chimney Sweep so you may well tire of the endless coverage of flue design and creosote prevention. This is one man's battle against chimney fires which, if you believed this, are so rife as to be on the brink of swallowing all our homes at any minute. You just don't get this sort of emphasis in the UK. All books on this topic published in recent times will focus on the modern clean-burn stoves that are required by the Clean Air Act. In 1992 the US EPA was only just introducing their own clean burn regulations for clean air in North America so we see a slice of time in which the old fashioned stoves were becoming obseleted. At this point our local books would finish but in North America Stephen spends a lot of the book discussing masonry stoves that are built into the fabric of the house. The author makes the burn cycles sound so complicated it would really put of many people considering getting a modern wood burning stove. Not for the beginner as this is misleading. Leave it off your Amazon Wish List. One for the curious only.... And those who wish to be a chimney sweep in the U.S. of A!

Three thumbs-down for being outdated and irrelevant
One thumbs-up for the unusual insight.