Post Carbon Living - Climate Change


		Inspiration for all

Chris Goodall "How to Live a Low-Carbon Life"

Richard Heinberg "The Party's Over"

George Monbiot "Heat"

The Power of Community - How Cuba Survived Peak Oil - DVD

The End of Suburbia - Oil Depletion & the Collapse of the American Dream - DVD

From the Library Shelf:

Proud Co-Founders of Transition Town High Wycombe

Climate Change - Running Time backwards

So much has been said about this topic over the last twenty years you would think that everyone has exhausted themselves. Few have joined the dots between Global Warming yet and the end of Fossil Fuels. Few traditional 'environmentalists' ever mention these two topics together probably because of their traditional dislike of manmade progress. If the fossil fuels run out then it is a good thing for the planet. Great. But very bad for the rest of us who are not quite prepared to die or live in mud huts.

Let us stay on the topic of Climate Change then. Post-Carbon Living deliberately downplay the role of Climate Change in the coming changes in our human society. Not only has it become a little boring but everything has already been said. However, it remains a secondary factor in driving change. To understand our future you must look at the past.

251 Million Years Ago

The world was six degrees warmer that it is now. The World could only sustain 10% of the species alive now. Huge firestorms swept the planet. The seas contain no oxygen and releases only hydrogen sulphide. Carbon Dioxide was 800 parts per million (ppm). Little of the planet is inhabitable in a way that mankind understands it now.

For the next 200 million years great forests grew. With each tree that grew and dies some of that Carbon was captured and remained in the ground. This slowly turned into coal. However most of our Carboniferous Coal was formed already - about 300 to 360 million years ago. Meanwhile, in the seas millions of years of plankton lived, died and settled on the bottom to slowly form Oil. Oil was formed in the Jurassic period some 200 to 145 million years ago. This was natural sequestration. The Carbon was locked away. Dinosaurs came and went 65 millions years ago.

55 million years ago it was five degrees hotter than it is now. Carbon Dioxide concentrations have fallen to 650ppm. Deserts retreat from the temperate zones and humanity begins to evolve. Much of the World remains uninhabitable but more species are evolving as the Planet cools. Methane hydrates are locked into the sea floor.

As the millions of years fell away the CO2 concentrations dropped away to 550ppm and the temperature fell to four degrees hotter than now. The sea level falls exposing the Nile Delta. The West Antarctica Ice sheet forms causing further sea level drops. Deserts retreat from areas we now call Spain and Portugal. Mankind moves south into the growing habitable zones. In Siberia permafrost forms. The permafrost locks in methane and more carbon dioxide.

More years pass as the temperature falls to three degrees higher than today. The CO2 levels fall to just 450ppm. Food growing areas expand into the tropics and sub-tropics. Deserts retreat even further. The Indus rivers forms in its present form from Glaciers forming in the Himalayas. Mankind stretches out along its length and prospers through the area. Storms in the tropics become less violent by half a category. The Amazonian ecosystem forms to replace desert and savannah. It soaks up CO2 like an enormous sponge. CO2 concentrations plummet to just 400ppm and the temperature falls to just two degrees hotter than today.

Acidity in the Oceans falls to levels we would recognise today. The Greenland Ice Sheet forms and the sea levels continue to fall. Whole new tracts of agricultural land form and mankind continues to flourish. The quantity and diversity of species on the planet double and double again. Polar Bears, Walruses and other ice-dependent mammals set up home on the Artic icecap.

As we move into the modern era of mankind the temperature drops to one degree hotter than now as the CO2 concentrations drop to 350ppm. Deserts retreat from the High Plains of what we call the United States. This area is opened to agriculture and mankind moves in. Mount Kilimanjaro gets its ice. The Gulf Stream switches on bring a warmer climate to Northern Europe allowing mankind to populate the more northern reaches. Coral reefs form around the globe. The sea level drops to create hundreds of tiny islands. Ice Ages came and went but CO2 levels remained low. Much lower than they are now. Much, much lower.

251 Years Ago

The Industrial Revolution CO2 concentrations are 278 ppm. Europe has become overpopulated - such is the success of mankind. The amount of wood grown in Europe could no longer support the human population in that area. This lead to hardships and many people set sail to colonise the Americas.

As the wood ran out the population turned to burning Coal. This was available in large quantities but most people didn't like it because it was considered a dirty fuel. Nobody at the time thought about all the trapped Carbon they were releasing. Coal and Tin mining spread through England. The mines kept flooding so Steam Engines were first devised to pump the water out. Then these new engines were linked to carts to pull the coal from the mines to the users. Next the new steam power engines were used to power new industries. To feed the new Steam Engines even more coal was required. The industrial revolution was off and running.

The demand for coal sky-rocketed for the next 150 years. Next the internal combustion was invented and liquid oil was required. This was first driven my military necessity. Oil was are far more energy-dense fuel. It was much better at powering Battleships for the great Imperial Powers. Oil was known of, and pumped in small quantities from the middle-east and central Asia for thousands of years. Now it was drilled for and pumped out on an industrial scale. Significant new finds became available in North America.

All of this Fossil Fuel was just trapped Carbon. It took 251 million years for nature to bury it in the ground. It took mankind just 251 years to dig and pump out half of all that buried Carbon. It will probably take less than 50 years to extract the rest at current consumption rates. Now this coal, oil and gas is used in growing quantities in every country on earth by almost every person. Its use is far from equitable. Some use far more than others. What is certain is that we are using it up as if were in some Time Machine going backwards in time at a rate of almost a Million Years per Year. In fact the number is not this bad. Apparently it would take nature 400 years to make the fossil fuel that we consume in just one year.

Today the CO2 concentrations in our atmosphere have gone back up to 380ppm. It rises by up to 2ppm every year. CO2 levels have not been this high for MILLIONS of years. It is intuitive and self-evident that you simply cannot turn the CO2 clock backwards without turning the temperatures back too. The argument about man-made global warming is over. There is no other side of an argument just as there is no contrary theory to Gravity. Some may believe the Earth is flat but everyone just laughs at them as if they are nutcases. They are.

Mankind burns 80 million barrels of oil a day. That is a thousand barrels per second. It is all trapped carbon. Millions of years of Sunlight trapped as chemical energy to be released in the merest blinking of an eye. A massive energy bonus, but a temporary one. The earth is now 0.7C hotter than 150 years ago. Sea levels are rising at 3mm per year. Glaciers worldwide are in retreat. Icecaps and permafrost are vanishing before our eyes. Droughts, heat waves and severe weather causes death and suffering around the globe. The net effect is to reduce our amount of agricultural land by which we can feed our (over) population.

Post-Carbon Girl

Resources

I don't know much about this climate thing. Sometimes it is cold and sometimes it is warm. This is a picture of me on my birthday. It is July so it is very warm. Daddy says climate is like the weather. If you have too much of the wrong kind it will hurt people. Too much hot weather and no rain mean that some people will have no water to drink. Bad weather could prevent our food from growing. We could end up very hungry and thirsty. That would make me cry.

www.climateneutral.unep.org - the UN ideas exchange
www.campaigncc.org
www.globalclimatecampaign.org
www.zercarbonbritain.com
www.ageofstupid.net
www.realclimate.org
www.withouthotair.com for good free book on the facts of renewable energy
www.trec-uk.org.uk for Desert Tech
www.risingtide.org.uk
www.stopclimatechaos.org
www.350.org
www.cse.org.uk for the Centre for Sustainable Energy

Conclusion

Low Carbon Man

In the worst case scenario Climate Change could remove many higher mammals from the planet. Eventually.

There may be some minor, and temporary, advantages for a few countries in food production.

Climate Change Denial

References

Collins gem: "Carbon Counter" Mark Lynas ISBN 978 0 00 724812 4. Harper Collins 2007.

"Six Degrees" Mark Lynas. Fourth Estate. 2007.